* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/17/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 116 114 109 104 95 77 52 35 29 26 24 25 25 23 20 V (KT) LAND 120 117 116 114 109 104 95 77 52 35 29 26 24 25 25 23 20 V (KT) LGEM 120 115 107 101 97 91 85 62 48 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 7 11 19 12 28 41 51 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 4 -1 7 13 13 7 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 211 233 217 230 192 208 234 263 281 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 27.6 27.0 26.7 26.2 25.7 22.1 10.8 12.0 11.2 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 133 126 123 119 117 95 73 74 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 118 113 110 107 108 90 72 72 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.5 -0.2 0.1 2.0 2.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 7 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 44 41 40 36 36 41 48 45 40 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 32 33 32 34 35 35 30 28 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 22 33 20 3 -26 -41 -5 64 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 50 93 95 74 121 71 38 1 -12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 16 18 26 30 41 73 60 -15 27 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 882 1022 1087 1061 1061 830 526 261 1015 1131 395 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.6 29.7 31.2 32.6 36.5 41.7 47.2 51.2 53.6 56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.8 67.1 66.5 65.6 64.8 62.1 56.8 49.4 39.4 27.2 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 16 19 28 36 38 39 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 22 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -28. -46. -62. -77. -87. -92. -95. -99.-101.-101.-100. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. -4. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -11. -16. -25. -43. -68. -84. -91. -94. -96. -95. -95. -97.-100. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 27.4 67.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 897.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -4.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 3.4% 2.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 31( 54) 28( 67) 26( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 45 1( 46) 0( 46) 0( 46) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 117 116 114 109 104 95 77 52 35 29 26 24 25 25 23 20 18HR AGO 120 119 118 116 111 106 97 79 54 37 31 28 26 27 27 25 22 12HR AGO 120 117 116 114 109 104 95 77 52 35 29 26 24 25 25 23 20 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 105 100 91 73 48 31 25 22 20 21 21 19 16 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 96 87 69 44 27 21 18 16 17 17 15 DIS IN 6HR 120 117 108 102 99 96 87 69 44 27 21 18 16 17 17 15 DIS IN 12HR 120 117 116 107 101 97 88 70 45 28 22 19 17 18 18 16 DIS