* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/16/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 127 125 121 118 111 107 98 76 46 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 127 125 121 118 111 107 98 76 46 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 126 124 117 109 98 93 80 56 42 34 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 7 13 13 16 14 22 36 46 58 54 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 7 3 1 0 9 16 13 7 3 18 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 237 219 220 224 227 197 208 243 275 291 295 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 27.3 27.0 26.3 25.9 19.2 9.9 12.7 11.6 13.8 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 129 126 121 119 84 72 74 73 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 129 130 116 114 110 110 79 71 72 71 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.7 -0.3 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 6 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 50 46 41 33 38 41 46 43 45 43 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 30 30 33 35 36 38 34 24 16 14 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -3 13 17 30 37 -13 -42 -68 -27 -6 0 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 94 68 45 80 90 129 90 15 2 -22 -4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 10 14 27 22 31 34 99 61 53 86 14 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 667 789 912 1070 1053 1043 758 480 357 1076 1165 393 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.7 27.7 29.0 30.3 33.4 37.6 42.5 46.7 49.9 52.3 53.9 55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.7 68.3 67.9 67.1 66.4 64.4 61.0 55.9 48.3 38.3 27.4 16.0 4.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 15 16 21 28 33 36 37 36 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 34 46 15 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -17. -27. -44. -61. -76. -88. -96.-102.-106.-107.-108.-107. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -9. -8. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 4. -10. -22. -26. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -4. -7. -14. -18. -27. -49. -79.-105.-118.-124.-121.-119.-121.-124. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 25.6 68.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 786.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -2.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.0% 9.5% 5.3% 3.7% 1.4% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 20.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.2% 3.6% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 38( 62) 32( 74) 29( 81) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 19 31( 44) 0( 44) 0( 44) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 127 125 121 118 111 107 98 76 46 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 125 124 122 118 115 108 104 95 73 43 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 125 122 121 117 114 107 103 94 72 42 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 112 105 101 92 70 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 125 116 110 107 106 99 95 86 64 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 125 127 118 112 109 104 100 91 69 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 125 127 125 116 110 106 102 93 71 41 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS