* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/15/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 112 112 111 110 109 108 106 94 72 54 42 42 42 41 39 V (KT) LAND 110 110 112 112 111 110 109 108 106 94 72 54 42 42 42 41 39 V (KT) LGEM 110 109 108 108 108 105 98 93 86 67 49 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 8 12 14 10 12 17 18 35 43 56 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 -1 2 1 2 9 13 11 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 277 273 267 272 273 253 214 205 228 253 275 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 27.8 26.7 26.3 24.6 13.7 10.5 9.4 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 143 144 136 124 121 108 74 72 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 131 128 126 127 122 113 111 100 72 71 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -52.9 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.0 -0.2 0.2 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 9 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 52 53 55 48 40 30 36 48 55 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 24 26 27 30 32 34 36 36 28 22 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -12 -23 -27 -22 11 64 29 -19 -23 34 27 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 20 15 60 81 87 65 76 91 45 9 -29 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 13 8 8 9 28 56 39 48 69 60 33 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 451 506 572 663 755 1012 988 862 553 150 479 1296 966 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.0 24.7 25.6 26.4 28.6 31.8 35.6 40.2 45.5 49.6 52.5 55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.7 68.2 68.6 68.6 68.7 67.8 66.1 63.8 60.1 54.8 46.6 35.7 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 9 10 14 19 24 30 34 36 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 52 50 35 31 37 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -15. -26. -35. -47. -57. -64. -71. -75. -77. -78. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -5. -4. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 1. -8. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -16. -38. -56. -68. -68. -68. -69. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 23.2 67.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 727.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.17 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 12.5% 7.6% 5.5% 3.7% 3.9% 1.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.1% 4.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 5.6% 3.1% 2.0% 1.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 30( 50) 29( 65) 29( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 19 40( 51) 30( 66) 39( 79) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 110 112 112 111 110 109 108 106 94 72 54 42 42 42 41 39 18HR AGO 110 109 111 111 110 109 108 107 105 93 71 53 41 41 41 40 38 12HR AGO 110 107 106 106 105 104 103 102 100 88 66 48 36 36 36 35 33 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 99 98 97 96 94 82 60 42 30 30 30 29 27 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 90 89 88 86 74 52 34 22 22 22 21 19 IN 6HR 110 110 101 95 92 90 89 88 86 74 52 34 22 22 22 21 19 IN 12HR 110 110 112 103 97 93 92 91 89 77 55 37 25 25 25 24 22