* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/15/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 73 78 85 89 91 88 85 79 76 72 70 70 70 68 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 73 78 85 89 91 88 85 79 76 72 70 70 70 68 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 68 72 80 85 87 86 83 78 73 70 71 74 80 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 5 3 2 6 3 6 4 5 9 8 17 16 17 19 20 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 3 2 0 -2 0 -4 3 5 0 0 -2 -3 2 5 SHEAR DIR 48 65 114 45 63 357 22 68 74 330 301 283 285 275 247 233 228 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 139 138 135 136 136 136 135 137 141 144 146 144 142 139 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -51.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 60 56 57 57 59 62 60 60 63 68 69 68 64 59 49 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 21 21 24 26 27 26 26 23 23 22 23 26 30 34 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 22 25 22 34 31 35 22 18 22 26 39 48 68 63 82 200 MB DIV 52 53 33 -3 17 21 66 57 53 85 79 32 37 43 57 66 42 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 -3 1 2 -1 3 1 1 5 7 12 5 LAND (KM) 1238 1164 1090 1009 929 767 596 432 289 161 38 93 112 64 233 387 520 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.6 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.1 17.8 18.6 19.3 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 144.8 145.5 146.1 146.9 147.7 149.3 150.8 152.3 153.6 154.7 155.8 156.8 157.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 12 13 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 8 8 7 12 18 17 13 15 26 44 54 28 21 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 9. 9. 5. 4. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 30. 34. 36. 33. 30. 24. 21. 17. 15. 15. 15. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.8 144.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/15/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 43.8% 66.6% 46.6% 47.4% 16.5% 30.3% 7.1% 3.1% Bayesian: 5.1% 10.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/15/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##