* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/14/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 71 75 77 79 79 80 77 72 71 70 70 69 68 66 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 71 75 77 79 79 80 77 72 71 70 67 66 64 62 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 66 70 73 77 78 78 76 70 64 61 61 62 65 68 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 6 3 4 6 8 0 13 11 17 13 14 17 18 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 4 5 7 0 8 -1 -3 -5 0 -1 -2 -1 3 2 SHEAR DIR 55 35 54 82 13 59 4 340 324 316 346 341 336 264 254 231 238 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.3 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 136 136 136 136 135 134 133 132 133 136 138 148 144 142 141 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 64 60 58 59 59 65 63 69 69 68 70 71 65 53 43 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 19 20 21 23 23 26 25 23 23 23 26 27 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR 26 20 22 23 26 27 7 6 -12 -14 -13 5 16 63 66 56 40 200 MB DIV 53 50 55 35 0 23 24 44 63 57 75 50 13 49 57 43 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -2 1 -2 0 1 2 4 5 7 8 LAND (KM) 1322 1264 1206 1143 1081 957 834 712 584 459 320 182 49 63 114 295 431 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 143.9 144.4 144.9 145.5 146.0 147.1 148.2 149.3 150.4 151.4 152.5 153.6 154.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 12 17 12 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 7 6 7 8 8 9 12 18 26 17 13 52 32 25 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 10. 9. 6. 6. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. 25. 22. 17. 16. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.8 143.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/14/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 24.5% 47.3% 31.1% 31.1% 9.6% 12.2% 2.1% 2.5% Bayesian: 4.3% 5.9% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/14/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##