* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/14/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 104 106 106 106 109 108 110 108 109 90 78 61 44 42 38 V (KT) LAND 100 102 104 106 106 106 109 108 110 108 109 90 78 61 44 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 100 102 104 105 105 103 101 97 92 87 81 62 46 38 34 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 9 11 13 8 16 12 20 34 56 66 67 66 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 4 4 8 4 -3 -6 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 169 157 177 249 292 292 267 239 198 206 198 219 225 243 255 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.2 26.7 25.7 25.6 15.4 9.7 12.3 8.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 153 149 145 140 128 124 115 115 75 69 71 68 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 142 138 132 127 124 114 111 104 104 72 68 69 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.8 -55.4 -56.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 7 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 50 51 54 58 45 37 32 38 34 37 45 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 22 22 25 28 28 31 33 37 31 29 22 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 0 -3 -15 -29 -5 25 43 14 24 73 24 13 -44 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 60 37 36 29 56 81 53 85 57 69 48 52 39 35 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 11 13 11 7 14 20 35 36 27 32 37 32 4 27 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 259 350 417 461 513 649 856 1072 1018 870 589 271 199 735 1269 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.3 24.0 25.4 27.2 29.4 32.2 35.7 39.8 44.4 48.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.6 66.4 67.1 67.6 68.1 68.5 68.0 67.0 65.5 63.5 60.3 55.9 50.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 8 11 14 18 22 26 28 27 26 25 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 83 83 69 54 47 35 35 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -15. -21. -28. -33. -40. -47. -54. -59. -60. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. 0. 3. 4. 4. 0. -5. -10. -15. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 9. 12. 14. 20. 10. 7. -3. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 9. 8. 10. 8. 9. -10. -22. -39. -56. -58. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 20.8 65.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.69 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.42 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 667.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.24 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.12 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.95 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 16.1% 11.0% 7.8% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 16.1% 10.8% 5.6% 3.0% 4.5% 3.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 4.7% 9.9% 4.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 14.0% 8.8% 4.8% 3.6% 1.7% 1.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 26( 42) 27( 58) 27( 69) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 22 22( 39) 32( 59) 23( 68) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 102 104 106 106 106 109 108 110 108 109 90 78 61 44 42 38 18HR AGO 100 99 101 103 103 103 106 105 107 105 106 87 75 58 41 39 35 12HR AGO 100 97 96 98 98 98 101 100 102 100 101 82 70 53 36 34 30 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 90 90 93 92 94 92 93 74 62 45 28 26 22 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 81 84 83 85 83 84 65 53 36 19 17 DIS IN 6HR 100 102 93 87 84 82 85 84 86 84 85 66 54 37 20 18 DIS IN 12HR 100 102 104 95 89 85 88 87 89 87 88 69 57 40 23 21 17