* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/14/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 61 66 73 78 80 80 78 77 72 69 67 64 63 62 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 61 66 73 78 80 80 78 77 72 69 58 61 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 57 61 68 74 78 76 71 65 60 57 48 52 54 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 7 4 5 4 9 2 11 18 11 13 14 16 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 0 2 3 2 2 7 -2 -6 -3 -1 -5 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 76 47 36 64 71 85 31 360 310 334 324 347 336 295 266 253 248 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.5 28.0 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 137 137 136 136 137 135 134 133 132 134 136 140 145 146 148 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.0 -52.8 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 70 65 62 59 59 62 64 65 70 71 70 73 71 64 56 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 18 19 21 23 25 25 24 25 22 21 21 20 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 32 26 20 20 23 26 30 14 3 -15 -13 -6 0 16 39 49 50 200 MB DIV 65 84 81 62 23 33 36 49 28 110 90 65 18 9 50 70 36 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 -1 1 2 1 0 2 6 LAND (KM) 1424 1368 1312 1250 1187 1063 945 829 701 576 436 297 159 -35 207 170 231 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 143.1 143.6 144.0 144.5 145.1 146.2 147.3 148.4 149.5 150.5 151.6 152.7 153.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 6 8 14 12 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 15 10 8 7 7 8 8 9 12 19 26 16 20 36 34 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 9. 9. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 21. 28. 33. 35. 35. 33. 32. 27. 24. 22. 19. 18. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.3 143.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/14/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 35.7% 63.5% 45.9% 43.7% 25.0% 24.1% 4.1% 5.6% Bayesian: 20.2% 22.0% 11.4% 5.7% 3.6% 5.7% 1.6% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/14/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##