* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/14/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 49 52 57 61 64 69 71 74 75 73 69 69 70 71 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 49 52 57 61 64 69 71 74 75 73 69 69 70 71 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 49 51 56 60 62 65 67 68 68 64 60 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 13 8 5 4 5 2 10 3 11 8 11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -4 -3 1 1 -2 5 -3 -5 -3 0 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 104 60 44 47 52 41 22 23 32 354 339 296 306 328 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 137 137 136 137 136 134 134 132 132 135 137 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 69 65 63 59 58 60 61 64 64 65 67 66 64 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 17 19 18 19 20 20 22 21 18 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 31 26 21 26 37 48 29 24 1 -13 -15 -2 5 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 71 71 57 49 30 21 31 47 48 55 45 38 31 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 1 0 2 4 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1479 1420 1361 1308 1254 1130 1002 886 766 625 493 362 224 146 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.4 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.7 143.2 143.6 144.0 144.5 145.6 146.8 147.9 148.9 150.0 151.0 152.0 153.0 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 9 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 20 15 10 8 6 8 8 8 11 15 23 21 13 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 17. 21. 24. 29. 31. 34. 35. 33. 29. 29. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.0 142.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/14/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 13.3% 31.4% 18.0% 14.5% 11.0% 5.9% 2.1% 5.9% Bayesian: 5.4% 8.1% 3.0% 1.0% 1.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.1% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/14/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##