* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/13/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 73 81 88 98 104 106 106 105 104 101 103 97 84 66 46 V (KT) LAND 60 67 73 81 88 98 104 106 106 105 104 101 103 97 84 66 46 V (KT) LGEM 60 67 72 78 83 94 102 105 105 104 100 96 90 74 58 44 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 5 5 8 9 9 8 13 14 26 35 48 54 65 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 4 3 0 -1 0 0 -1 1 1 0 -4 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 237 209 205 194 136 213 329 318 308 259 212 232 222 232 230 234 230 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 27.7 27.7 26.9 26.0 25.8 17.8 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 157 157 154 150 148 145 145 133 134 126 117 116 77 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 149 149 148 147 140 134 130 127 127 117 119 113 105 101 72 67 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -52.3 -53.6 -54.8 -55.3 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 53 53 55 57 58 61 54 50 34 24 20 28 41 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 21 23 25 28 30 32 33 36 39 44 44 38 30 23 850 MB ENV VOR -6 8 3 6 8 6 -1 -8 7 17 63 97 89 -84 -78 -17 105 200 MB DIV 34 33 47 61 72 25 55 33 77 67 53 22 3 2 29 55 57 700-850 TADV 6 10 15 10 11 9 8 10 16 17 7 14 -2 -1 -31 -36 -42 LAND (KM) 350 249 164 142 179 343 432 541 669 836 1047 1164 1146 954 778 475 393 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.4 20.1 21.6 23.0 24.2 25.4 26.8 28.5 30.7 33.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.5 63.3 64.2 65.0 65.8 67.0 67.7 67.9 67.8 67.2 66.2 64.7 62.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 7 9 11 15 18 21 20 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 42 45 54 66 78 84 60 44 34 34 21 19 12 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. -1. -6. -13. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 13. 15. 19. 22. 28. 25. 16. 5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 15. 11. 6. 1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 21. 28. 38. 44. 46. 46. 45. 44. 41. 43. 37. 24. 6. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.5 62.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 14.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.75 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.35 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 385.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.65 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 5.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.1% 54.1% 40.7% 32.2% 23.6% 43.7% 38.2% 25.3% Logistic: 26.5% 50.9% 44.6% 43.6% 20.5% 26.3% 12.3% 5.4% Bayesian: 22.5% 37.9% 30.0% 5.5% 4.7% 10.5% 5.2% 0.2% Consensus: 24.4% 47.6% 38.4% 27.1% 16.3% 26.8% 18.5% 10.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 11( 15) 21( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 3( 3) 34( 36) 34( 58) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 67 73 81 88 98 104 106 106 105 104 101 103 97 84 66 46 18HR AGO 60 59 65 73 80 90 96 98 98 97 96 93 95 89 76 58 38 12HR AGO 60 57 56 64 71 81 87 89 89 88 87 84 86 80 67 49 29 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 57 67 73 75 75 74 73 70 72 66 53 35 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT