* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/12/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 54 64 72 82 90 97 103 111 114 115 116 112 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 54 60 68 78 86 93 99 107 110 112 113 109 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 53 57 65 75 85 93 101 103 100 93 84 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 6 11 10 8 7 3 3 7 7 8 4 12 17 25 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -5 -5 -6 0 0 1 2 -3 0 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 10 275 285 282 284 230 99 184 6 56 30 164 164 176 169 182 190 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 157 159 155 158 157 154 151 149 148 146 145 143 139 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 147 148 151 152 146 147 143 137 133 131 129 126 126 124 119 113 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 52 49 49 50 48 51 52 53 52 44 34 34 30 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 11 12 14 17 19 21 26 28 31 33 32 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -10 -5 -7 -4 5 0 -22 -17 -26 -25 -31 13 -17 -53 -56 -48 200 MB DIV 9 14 4 9 28 29 20 -1 27 16 43 39 41 -6 -20 8 11 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -1 0 6 7 8 8 3 7 5 0 4 -6 0 -2 LAND (KM) 659 628 517 407 298 89 33 159 202 262 343 446 537 636 752 864 975 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.7 18.8 19.9 20.8 21.6 22.5 23.5 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.0 60.1 61.2 62.2 63.3 65.1 66.5 67.5 68.1 68.4 68.5 68.5 68.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 62 54 44 42 47 62 58 62 67 68 65 54 44 32 27 24 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 32. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 17. 18. 19. 20. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 29. 37. 47. 55. 62. 68. 76. 79. 80. 81. 77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.4 59.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/12/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.80 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.76 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 17.2% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 23.7% 48.5% Logistic: 6.5% 29.7% 21.6% 9.5% 3.2% 14.9% 19.7% 23.1% Bayesian: 2.3% 12.5% 6.2% 0.3% 0.3% 3.7% 14.6% 0.4% Consensus: 5.0% 19.8% 12.8% 3.3% 1.2% 9.6% 19.4% 24.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/12/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/12/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 44 47 54 60 68 78 86 93 99 107 110 112 113 109 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 43 50 56 64 74 82 89 95 103 106 108 109 105 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 44 50 58 68 76 83 89 97 100 102 103 99 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 35 41 49 59 67 74 80 88 91 93 94 90 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT