* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAY AL072014 10/12/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 56 53 50 42 35 30 27 27 24 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 56 53 50 42 35 30 27 27 24 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 57 54 50 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 35 34 35 39 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 2 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 174 190 201 206 223 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 132 129 124 123 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 118 114 111 109 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 5 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 54 51 41 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 20 20 19 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 11 30 26 21 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 49 58 55 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -9 -14 -30 -26 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1154 1174 1173 1178 1167 1158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.5 32.7 33.5 34.3 35.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.2 64.1 63.0 61.0 59.0 55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 18 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 11 9 6 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 15 CX,CY: 1/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -23. -28. -32. -36. -39. -41. -45. -47. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -10. -18. -25. -30. -33. -33. -36. -36. -39. -43. -45. -47. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 30.2 65.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072014 FAY 10/12/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072014 FAY 10/12/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072014 FAY 10/12/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 56 53 50 42 35 30 27 27 24 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 53 50 42 35 30 27 27 24 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 50 42 35 30 27 27 24 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 39 32 27 24 24 21 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT