* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAY AL072014 10/11/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 61 59 57 49 44 41 39 39 38 38 35 32 31 30 28 V (KT) LAND 60 60 61 59 57 49 44 41 39 39 38 38 35 32 31 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 61 59 56 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 33 29 24 28 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 6 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 167 175 184 201 209 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 131 129 125 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 118 116 112 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 54 57 54 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 26 24 23 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 14 24 36 39 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 56 72 75 63 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 -8 -11 -47 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1095 1189 1167 1186 1117 995 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 30.2 31.6 32.9 34.2 36.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.5 64.8 64.1 62.4 60.6 57.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 20 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 21 10 9 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 15 CX,CY: -3/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. -31. -33. -36. -38. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. -1. -3. -11. -16. -19. -21. -21. -22. -22. -25. -28. -29. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.7 65.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072014 FAY 10/11/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 371.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072014 FAY 10/11/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072014 FAY 10/11/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 61 59 57 49 44 41 39 39 38 38 35 32 31 30 28 18HR AGO 60 59 60 58 56 48 43 40 38 38 37 37 34 31 30 29 27 12HR AGO 60 57 56 54 52 44 39 36 34 34 33 33 30 27 26 25 23 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 40 35 32 30 30 29 29 26 23 22 21 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT