* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072014 10/10/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 41 35 33 32 30 27 26 25 22 21 21 21 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 41 35 33 32 30 27 26 25 22 21 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 28 28 27 30 38 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -1 3 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 165 167 175 176 174 195 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.2 27.9 27.9 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 140 136 136 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 132 124 120 119 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 59 56 56 52 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 17 16 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 74 64 57 51 -17 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 83 49 54 36 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 4 3 1 1 3 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 677 756 841 957 1063 1256 1183 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.2 26.0 27.1 28.1 30.4 32.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.0 64.5 64.9 64.9 64.9 63.8 62.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 37 33 21 15 15 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 21. 22. 24. 24. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -10. -17. -22. -28. -31. -35. -39. -42. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.3 64.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072014 SEVEN 10/10/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.59 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.75 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 11.9% 7.4% 4.5% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 11.7% 5.9% 2.5% 1.0% 2.1% 1.0% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 8.1% 4.5% 2.3% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072014 SEVEN 10/10/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072014 SEVEN 10/10/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 42 41 35 33 32 30 27 26 25 22 21 21 21 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 39 38 32 30 29 27 24 23 22 19 18 18 18 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 33 27 25 24 22 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 25 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT