* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/04/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 108 111 108 102 90 77 68 53 35 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 108 111 108 102 90 77 68 53 35 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 107 106 98 88 74 65 55 45 34 25 20 18 17 17 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 3 5 7 11 14 16 23 32 39 46 44 52 52 49 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -1 0 2 4 9 4 11 6 1 -1 -4 -3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 5 202 246 242 237 244 254 237 240 227 233 236 238 243 250 255 257 SST (C) 27.6 27.0 25.8 24.5 24.1 24.4 24.2 24.0 23.9 24.2 24.5 25.0 25.6 26.3 26.3 26.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 134 121 107 102 104 101 99 98 101 104 110 116 123 122 119 115 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.0 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 62 59 57 54 48 44 39 34 25 20 18 16 15 14 14 14 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 27 27 27 26 26 20 13 6 2 3 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 22 16 19 19 21 24 27 20 23 14 3 -17 -5 0 9 11 8 200 MB DIV 16 14 -7 -2 17 29 23 37 15 -2 -1 -12 -31 -39 -22 -22 -46 700-850 TADV -3 1 -1 1 4 5 7 5 -2 -3 -2 -2 -8 -4 -5 1 -1 LAND (KM) 553 545 557 562 579 567 531 484 446 383 321 247 172 98 39 9 27 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.2 23.7 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.1 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.5 116.3 116.9 117.4 117.8 117.9 117.8 117.7 117.4 117.1 116.6 116.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 7 6 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -9. -18. -26. -34. -42. -47. -53. -56. -58. -60. -62. -64. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -11. -17. -24. -31. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 6. 3. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -8. -18. -28. -32. -28. -26. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 11. 8. 3. -10. -23. -32. -47. -65. -82. -95. -98.-104.-110.-115.-120. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 20.3 114.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/04/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 579.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 46.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 61.1% 22.3% 22.0% 16.9% 16.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 35.8% 7.4% 7.3% 5.6% 5.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/04/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##