* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 98 102 103 102 94 85 76 65 51 30 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 98 102 103 102 94 85 76 65 51 30 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 98 101 99 93 79 70 62 52 40 29 23 20 17 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 2 3 2 3 11 19 20 27 37 43 48 49 51 49 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -4 0 4 6 4 7 12 9 7 2 -1 -2 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 7 350 355 235 203 235 237 245 257 233 235 237 249 247 248 251 253 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.2 25.0 24.1 24.4 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.8 25.2 25.8 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 135 125 112 101 104 102 103 104 108 112 118 122 122 124 125 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -50.6 -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.8 -51.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 70 68 63 59 57 51 46 40 39 35 27 21 18 16 14 13 14 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 27 26 28 27 28 27 25 20 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 29 21 22 22 26 26 22 15 15 11 -12 -15 -8 0 5 -5 200 MB DIV 23 32 3 -15 -8 19 2 31 14 33 -8 -10 -21 -33 -34 -31 -40 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -1 -2 0 3 4 3 2 -6 -6 -4 -11 -12 -5 1 3 LAND (KM) 477 524 531 527 538 560 504 454 409 364 303 234 166 122 83 57 31 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.9 23.7 24.3 24.7 25.1 25.6 26.1 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.3 114.3 115.3 116.0 116.6 117.4 117.5 117.5 117.3 117.1 116.8 116.4 116.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 8 7 5 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -10. -17. -24. -30. -35. -39. -42. -44. -46. -48. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -4. -9. -15. -22. -29. -34. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 4. 4. 1. -7. -20. -25. -23. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 12. 13. 12. 4. -5. -14. -25. -39. -60. -73. -80. -87. -95.-103.-109. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 19.9 113.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/04/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.12 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 7.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 464.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.39 -2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 45.3% 26.4% 25.7% 21.7% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 50.7% 32.8% 26.8% 20.9% 18.2% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 32.7% 19.8% 17.5% 14.2% 11.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/04/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##