* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 83 88 90 90 85 80 73 59 41 27 27 23 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 77 83 88 90 90 85 80 73 59 41 27 27 23 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 77 82 85 85 80 72 66 59 50 39 32 32 31 30 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 3 1 3 10 12 15 18 28 34 43 44 43 41 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 -4 -3 0 1 0 6 3 10 10 7 3 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 65 22 27 72 189 187 208 235 246 234 224 229 232 235 243 249 248 SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.5 24.8 24.2 24.7 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 141 136 127 109 102 107 113 114 115 119 125 129 129 129 129 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -51.6 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 74 71 69 65 61 57 51 44 39 35 27 24 20 16 14 12 12 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 26 26 26 26 26 27 26 20 12 6 10 13 18 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 32 25 29 25 27 31 33 31 19 9 -1 -16 -26 -10 0 9 8 200 MB DIV 39 33 25 16 -15 27 15 19 33 24 6 -11 -16 -32 -33 -26 -19 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -4 -1 -3 2 3 5 4 -3 -4 -2 -7 -9 -7 -4 2 LAND (KM) 461 486 536 543 552 546 532 492 429 357 288 226 172 137 122 122 113 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.7 21.1 22.0 22.7 23.4 24.0 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.2 113.3 114.3 115.1 115.9 116.7 117.0 116.9 116.7 116.4 116.0 115.7 115.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 17 10 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -20. -22. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -3. -9. -15. -20. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. -3. -15. -22. -14. -10. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 18. 20. 20. 15. 10. 3. -11. -29. -43. -43. -47. -49. -59. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.3 112.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/04/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 8.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 7.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 42.6% 43.1% 34.3% 26.5% 19.4% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 30.2% 38.9% 24.4% 18.2% 17.2% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.5% 4.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 25.1% 28.7% 19.7% 15.0% 12.3% 8.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/04/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##