* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192014 10/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 54 63 70 74 74 74 71 68 68 68 70 72 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 54 63 70 74 74 74 71 68 68 68 70 72 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 40 45 49 52 53 52 51 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 8 3 1 5 9 11 4 8 1 5 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -2 0 1 -2 0 -3 -4 -5 -6 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 81 115 151 183 128 131 135 148 104 208 218 280 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.9 28.5 27.3 26.6 25.9 25.4 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 145 140 141 146 153 149 135 127 119 114 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -51.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 10 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 82 80 78 77 76 73 76 74 67 61 55 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 12 16 18 19 19 20 18 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 46 32 21 25 23 36 21 19 13 26 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 62 59 48 71 50 76 35 26 28 40 -8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 2 -2 -1 0 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 172 177 210 257 304 367 338 404 430 413 414 406 415 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.5 22.3 22.9 23.4 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.8 106.6 107.4 108.2 109.8 111.5 113.2 114.5 115.3 115.8 116.0 116.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 6 5 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 17 10 6 6 10 16 13 5 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 431 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. 26. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 15. 15. 15. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 33. 40. 44. 44. 44. 41. 38. 38. 38. 40. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.6 105.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192014 NINETEEN 10/02/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.73 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 23.1% 21.2% 16.0% 0.0% 17.5% 16.8% 18.4% Logistic: 2.2% 13.3% 6.9% 2.9% 1.4% 10.2% 23.2% 5.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% Consensus: 4.3% 13.7% 9.8% 6.5% 0.5% 9.3% 13.4% 8.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 NINETEEN 10/02/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##