* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/29/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 56 53 48 39 32 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 61 56 53 48 39 32 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 61 56 52 48 40 34 29 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 21 20 22 24 29 30 34 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 0 1 1 -1 1 -4 1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 192 194 214 206 207 228 224 225 216 211 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 115 114 114 114 116 116 116 116 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 34 32 32 31 28 29 27 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 18 17 14 12 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 35 20 33 29 36 25 21 21 16 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 7 -33 -13 9 -6 -15 -12 -2 1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 598 590 583 585 588 594 624 653 681 707 727 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.6 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.4 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 117.6 117.6 117.7 117.7 117.8 118.0 118.2 118.5 118.9 119.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -20. -24. -26. -28. -30. -32. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -20. -22. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -12. -17. -26. -33. -42. -50. -58. -65. -68. -69. -71. -73. -76. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.3 117.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/29/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 631.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/29/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##