* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/28/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 78 77 74 62 54 44 36 30 25 21 20 19 19 19 18 V (KT) LAND 75 78 78 77 74 62 54 44 36 30 25 21 20 19 19 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 75 78 79 76 71 61 52 44 39 34 30 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 13 16 18 17 17 16 20 16 17 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -5 -2 1 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 183 187 177 183 198 228 230 232 225 235 221 227 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.8 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 120 118 117 116 118 119 117 117 117 118 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 41 40 39 34 36 33 34 31 32 33 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 20 20 16 15 12 11 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 31 27 26 34 28 39 30 29 17 10 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 22 10 8 3 -15 0 1 -13 -6 -8 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 0 2 3 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 648 629 614 609 606 615 650 707 758 804 841 900 953 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.2 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.0 21.7 21.2 20.8 20.5 20.2 19.7 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.1 117.2 117.3 117.4 117.5 117.7 118.0 118.3 118.6 118.8 119.1 119.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -23. -24. -26. -28. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 2. -1. -13. -21. -31. -39. -45. -50. -54. -55. -56. -56. -56. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.8 116.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/28/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 633.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 2.3% 3.0% 1.2% 3.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 7.7% 1.0% 0.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/28/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##