* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/27/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 63 62 58 51 45 37 31 26 22 19 19 18 20 20 V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 63 62 58 51 45 37 31 26 22 19 19 18 20 20 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 62 62 60 55 49 43 38 34 30 27 25 23 22 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 8 8 10 13 13 17 18 16 13 13 8 9 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -4 -1 0 0 1 -1 0 0 0 -4 0 -4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 290 190 200 201 193 211 206 223 243 248 247 234 235 205 183 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 126 123 121 118 116 117 117 118 119 119 119 119 122 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 48 45 43 39 34 33 30 29 29 29 28 31 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 19 18 18 15 14 11 10 8 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 24 31 26 24 26 29 37 28 25 12 12 0 3 -3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 27 41 24 10 13 -13 -9 -16 -11 -14 -14 -11 -17 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 0 2 1 3 2 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 673 648 625 610 597 580 597 612 641 686 735 787 855 930 999 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.6 22.0 22.0 21.9 21.7 21.4 20.9 20.5 20.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.3 116.5 116.7 116.9 117.0 117.1 117.3 117.4 117.6 117.9 118.1 118.4 118.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -15. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -9. -15. -23. -29. -34. -38. -41. -41. -42. -40. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.0 116.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/27/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 24.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 8.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/27/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##