* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/26/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 48 49 50 51 50 48 44 37 32 27 26 24 25 26 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 48 49 50 51 50 48 44 37 32 27 26 24 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 47 48 48 46 43 40 36 32 29 26 24 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 5 4 4 7 7 8 8 16 18 18 15 15 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -4 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -4 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 20 46 51 26 53 151 166 202 195 220 236 242 257 244 248 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.0 25.5 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 140 137 133 121 115 113 113 112 113 112 113 111 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 61 55 48 40 35 30 28 24 21 19 18 19 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 17 17 16 15 15 13 10 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 33 38 34 27 35 33 34 37 40 37 38 34 31 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 39 28 5 12 7 4 1 -6 -7 -15 -27 -18 -29 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 -1 0 0 0 0 2 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 741 748 763 737 717 678 644 621 604 598 598 612 636 656 679 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.7 21.4 21.9 22.2 22.3 22.3 22.2 22.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.3 115.9 116.3 116.7 117.2 117.4 117.5 117.5 117.5 117.5 117.6 117.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 8 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -8. -13. -18. -19. -21. -20. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.9 114.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/26/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.57 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 23.2% 16.3% 15.3% 0.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 6.0% 2.7% 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 9.7% 6.3% 5.7% 0.4% 5.7% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/26/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##