* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/26/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 39 42 46 50 54 55 52 50 47 43 40 39 40 43 V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 39 42 46 50 54 55 52 50 47 43 40 39 40 43 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 39 40 42 44 45 44 41 39 37 34 32 31 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 8 8 1 3 6 6 8 9 13 15 17 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -4 -7 0 0 1 2 5 4 6 1 5 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 40 39 34 19 16 45 181 247 168 229 220 222 235 242 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 145 141 132 127 125 122 121 120 120 120 119 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 69 66 62 61 57 52 46 37 33 30 29 25 23 20 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 18 19 19 19 19 19 16 15 14 12 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 38 37 36 32 19 23 25 30 34 34 34 26 24 4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 32 24 33 35 -5 -6 -7 -1 -22 -23 -16 -27 -19 -25 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -3 -2 -2 0 1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 628 605 601 602 615 608 567 511 478 446 412 388 374 374 374 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.3 20.2 21.0 21.8 22.4 22.8 23.1 23.2 23.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.3 113.2 113.9 114.5 115.5 116.0 116.1 116.2 116.1 115.9 115.7 115.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 7 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 14 11 9 6 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 15. 12. 10. 7. 3. -0. -1. 0. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.4 111.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/26/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.91 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 18.1% 11.9% 11.8% 0.0% 14.0% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.4% 4.1% 4.0% 0.1% 4.9% 5.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/26/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##