* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/25/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 49 50 55 58 60 59 57 53 50 46 43 41 43 45 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 49 50 55 58 60 59 57 53 50 46 43 41 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 53 55 58 61 61 58 54 50 46 43 40 38 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 11 11 8 5 1 6 4 11 10 17 23 24 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 -3 -4 -3 0 -1 3 0 5 1 2 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 41 42 41 33 35 324 181 177 211 222 214 241 244 254 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 150 149 146 137 132 127 125 124 124 123 123 124 126 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 68 67 63 61 55 48 42 35 29 28 25 25 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 15 14 11 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 28 34 33 32 25 17 23 20 24 21 27 16 15 3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 16 29 14 23 31 3 14 -9 -10 -28 -25 -16 -25 -18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -6 -2 0 -1 0 2 0 0 -1 0 1 1 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 632 647 622 606 605 624 593 537 489 438 390 351 300 240 184 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.5 20.3 21.2 21.9 22.5 23.0 23.4 23.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.3 112.2 113.0 113.7 114.8 115.4 115.8 115.9 115.8 115.6 115.4 115.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 15 14 12 10 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 10. 13. 15. 14. 12. 8. 5. 1. -2. -4. -2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.7 110.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/25/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.89 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 22.7% 15.4% 15.0% 0.0% 17.2% 16.8% 15.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 3.7% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 8.2% 5.3% 5.1% 0.1% 6.0% 6.8% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/25/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##