* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/25/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 50 51 53 57 59 60 58 54 50 46 45 44 45 47 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 50 51 53 57 59 60 58 54 50 46 45 44 45 47 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 53 54 56 59 60 59 56 52 48 45 44 44 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 14 11 10 6 3 5 4 9 11 14 18 20 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 -1 -4 0 0 1 -4 -2 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 55 43 44 46 48 53 61 138 170 144 194 201 221 228 248 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 151 151 149 144 136 131 127 127 128 128 126 127 128 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 68 67 68 68 62 59 53 46 38 32 26 23 21 19 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 12 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 28 29 39 36 31 23 12 18 14 21 18 13 12 3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -11 12 22 8 19 4 -5 12 -9 -28 -24 -22 -20 -14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -4 -4 -2 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 -6 -2 -5 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 569 617 653 621 608 615 620 568 526 483 428 348 283 237 176 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.2 23.0 23.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.1 111.0 111.9 112.8 114.1 114.9 115.3 115.5 115.5 115.4 115.1 114.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 6 5 4 3 2 4 4 2 2 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 15 12 8 5 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -10. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 12. 14. 15. 13. 9. 5. 1. -0. -1. 0. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.1 109.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/25/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.33 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 19.0% 18.6% 14.2% 10.0% 16.4% 16.6% 15.2% Logistic: 1.0% 3.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 2.2% 6.0% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 7.6% 6.7% 5.0% 3.5% 6.2% 7.6% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/25/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##