* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/25/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 37 40 44 47 45 44 42 39 37 35 35 37 40 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 37 40 44 47 45 44 42 39 37 35 35 37 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 43 41 39 37 35 34 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 18 16 13 11 11 6 7 10 11 14 15 20 20 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 -2 -6 0 -5 -3 -4 -4 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 52 43 47 45 44 76 100 162 158 174 190 196 216 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 148 151 151 147 141 134 129 127 125 124 122 121 120 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 72 68 67 68 63 60 56 50 43 37 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 8 7 6 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 35 32 33 40 32 22 11 13 13 14 12 21 16 13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 -1 -17 2 11 5 2 -2 1 9 -1 -13 -24 -11 -31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -2 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 524 562 612 651 618 603 629 655 634 617 581 542 527 506 487 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.5 21.0 21.5 21.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.1 109.1 110.0 110.9 111.8 113.4 114.5 115.3 115.8 116.1 116.2 116.2 116.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 7 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 15 15 15 15 11 7 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 22. 22. 22. 21. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. 0. -0. 2. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.7 108.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/25/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.15 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.19 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.94 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 12.9% 9.4% 5.9% 0.0% 10.2% 11.9% 13.8% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 3.5% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.6% 3.2% 2.0% 0.0% 3.6% 5.1% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/25/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##