* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182014 09/25/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 36 40 44 48 50 51 51 50 47 44 42 42 41 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 36 40 44 48 50 51 51 50 47 44 42 42 41 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 37 38 39 41 43 45 46 47 46 44 40 37 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 23 19 16 13 11 8 6 5 5 10 11 16 19 16 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -5 -6 -2 -5 -3 -5 -1 -3 -3 -5 -5 -5 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 46 53 58 52 50 41 38 63 107 124 133 156 168 192 210 225 220 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 151 149 147 141 136 128 125 123 120 119 117 117 117 116 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 70 68 70 63 59 54 49 43 37 33 29 25 22 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 9 7 5 4 1 850 MB ENV VOR 24 28 32 35 33 34 24 13 14 14 14 11 9 19 16 21 5 200 MB DIV 30 37 0 -13 2 -19 5 4 14 9 2 0 -15 -24 -29 -23 -30 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 -3 -1 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 512 527 568 614 662 623 640 662 666 652 637 603 579 572 565 558 551 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.0 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.9 108.0 109.0 110.0 110.9 112.7 114.1 115.0 115.7 116.1 116.4 116.5 116.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 6 5 3 2 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 36 21 16 14 14 12 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 21. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 12. 9. 7. 7. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.1 106.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 EIGHTEEN 09/25/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 10.7% 13.7% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.9% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.2% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 EIGHTEEN 09/25/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##