* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/21/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 29 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 29 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 31 29 26 23 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 24 24 20 21 19 15 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -5 -4 -3 1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 114 112 126 133 138 147 125 115 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 130 131 132 131 130 132 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 49 47 47 45 43 42 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 24 29 23 16 14 2 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 17 7 -13 -22 -5 -12 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 5 4 5 6 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 189 238 279 312 354 438 536 621 706 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.3 22.2 21.9 21.3 20.6 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.4 113.1 113.7 114.3 115.2 115.9 116.3 116.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -14. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -20. -22. -23. -22. -21. -18. -15. -14. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.2 111.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/21/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/21/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##