* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/21/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 30 30 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 30 30 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 28 26 22 20 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 21 22 25 25 20 17 14 16 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 104 110 118 114 128 141 137 117 103 100 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 137 134 132 131 133 133 133 135 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 53 50 49 48 49 47 47 49 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 22 9 16 23 10 8 1 8 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 5 9 21 3 -4 7 -14 -14 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 2 9 5 4 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 157 155 184 231 267 327 387 456 520 606 690 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.2 21.9 21.4 20.9 20.1 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.9 111.5 112.2 112.8 113.8 114.4 114.8 115.1 115.3 115.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 11 8 6 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -5. -8. -14. -19. -24. -28. -30. -30. -28. -27. -24. -21. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.5 110.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/21/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.62 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/21/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##