* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/19/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 58 54 52 46 41 33 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 58 54 52 46 41 33 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 57 54 50 44 37 30 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 26 31 31 30 23 26 24 23 20 20 20 20 17 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 7 6 0 -3 0 1 3 -3 2 -3 0 0 0 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 70 62 67 81 93 103 115 110 124 125 128 126 107 106 97 95 81 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 146 145 142 140 139 132 128 124 122 123 125 124 124 123 124 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 8 6 6 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 67 64 64 61 61 56 56 50 50 47 48 45 49 49 50 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 17 17 15 15 12 9 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 40 49 59 49 36 28 25 27 19 9 1 -5 7 14 24 39 35 200 MB DIV 34 40 39 19 -6 13 0 10 2 9 3 -5 -18 -8 -4 -14 -20 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 -3 -2 0 2 2 4 2 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 209 232 269 319 276 199 237 304 351 436 516 571 624 654 682 704 725 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.5 21.2 21.7 22.1 22.3 22.3 22.2 22.0 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.7 108.2 108.8 109.3 110.6 111.9 113.1 114.4 115.6 116.5 117.0 117.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 1 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 22 17 13 12 13 5 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -16. -19. -21. -22. -22. -23. -23. -24. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -17. -19. -20. -19. -16. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -6. -8. -14. -19. -27. -36. -43. -49. -50. -51. -49. -49. -48. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.0 107.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/19/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/19/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##