* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/18/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 53 46 40 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 59 53 46 40 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 59 53 48 44 38 35 37 38 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 30 32 35 31 26 16 20 32 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 3 -3 -3 0 -4 -5 -3 -2 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 270 281 289 292 311 326 297 282 278 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.1 22.8 23.1 22.5 22.3 21.8 21.9 21.3 23.4 24.5 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 91 92 88 87 85 86 84 94 101 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 79 79 76 75 74 75 74 82 88 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.5 -55.6 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 48 50 47 43 42 41 33 30 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 25 22 19 17 13 9 9 10 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -43 -63 -65 -83 -55 0 -10 16 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 19 -5 -13 -16 -27 -7 -21 -32 -19 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 10 13 14 8 21 15 -3 -23 -13 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1161 1256 1355 1422 1491 1625 1806 1935 1872 1757 1654 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.9 39.9 39.9 39.9 39.9 39.8 39.2 38.0 36.2 34.0 31.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.2 40.7 39.2 38.2 37.2 35.4 33.4 31.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 8 7 8 9 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 15 CX,CY: 15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. -25. -28. -29. -32. -35. -38. -40. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -11. -14. -18. -20. -22. -24. -26. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -8. -14. -22. -26. -27. -31. -33. -34. -34. -33. -33. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -19. -25. -35. -44. -50. -55. -63. -67. -69. -71. -73. -74. -74. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 39.9 42.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/18/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 535.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/18/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/18/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 59 53 46 40 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 58 51 45 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 54 48 38 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 49 39 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT