* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/18/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 77 79 80 82 79 75 68 61 50 42 34 28 23 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 65 71 77 79 80 82 79 75 68 61 50 42 34 28 23 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 72 76 77 77 75 71 66 60 51 42 35 28 22 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 17 21 22 18 23 23 19 21 20 24 21 22 24 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 5 3 4 4 6 2 7 0 8 0 7 -1 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 69 82 75 64 58 66 66 77 75 97 90 116 113 111 111 98 107 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.3 27.8 27.7 27.6 26.7 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 140 140 142 146 146 141 140 138 129 124 123 122 118 115 111 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.8 -50.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 10 7 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 69 69 69 66 63 57 54 49 47 42 41 38 38 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 20 19 18 20 19 20 20 19 17 15 12 10 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 24 24 19 14 25 45 59 38 31 27 22 14 7 2 -1 8 -4 200 MB DIV 71 84 91 56 52 32 44 15 25 -28 -2 -19 -12 -4 -4 -8 -10 700-850 TADV -10 -11 -7 -5 -4 0 1 -2 0 0 0 1 -2 -2 -8 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 244 239 241 240 253 292 350 345 308 340 411 432 489 571 667 744 813 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.6 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.3 105.0 105.6 106.2 106.7 107.7 108.8 110.1 111.3 112.5 113.7 114.7 115.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 32 27 21 18 16 17 21 18 10 10 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 351 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 14. 15. 17. 14. 10. 3. -4. -15. -23. -31. -37. -42. -47. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.3 104.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/18/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.41 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.08 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.9% 26.1% 23.0% 17.7% 13.2% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.9% 18.8% 8.8% 5.2% 2.2% 2.8% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 7.5% 22.5% 13.0% 7.4% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.4% 22.5% 14.9% 10.1% 5.1% 6.8% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/18/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##