* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/17/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 78 76 73 63 47 32 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 78 76 73 63 47 32 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 76 72 70 67 58 47 39 34 32 32 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 12 16 20 30 36 34 25 24 26 25 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 7 10 8 -4 -3 -5 -3 -3 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 138 188 221 235 243 259 274 285 307 301 298 286 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.2 25.3 25.4 24.7 22.8 22.0 22.3 22.0 22.8 22.8 23.1 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 130 111 112 106 92 86 87 85 90 90 92 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 116 99 100 94 81 75 75 74 77 78 79 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.2 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 2 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 47 44 48 49 50 47 45 35 34 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 31 31 30 28 22 17 11 8 8 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 15 12 9 6 -11 -26 -66 -11 -10 -13 -10 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 69 58 38 25 20 0 -4 -14 -19 -25 -19 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 28 15 17 9 9 23 18 19 26 -8 -12 -12 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1280 1205 1068 977 932 1075 1253 1395 1546 1718 1891 2060 1901 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.8 37.1 38.2 39.3 40.3 40.5 40.2 39.7 38.9 37.8 36.4 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.0 54.2 52.4 50.0 47.7 43.1 40.1 38.3 36.6 34.9 33.5 32.5 31.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 21 21 20 15 9 7 7 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 16 CX,CY: 8/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -22. -30. -36. -41. -45. -49. -52. -54. -55. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -9. -10. -9. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -13. -21. -31. -37. -39. -40. -42. -40. -39. -38. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -4. -7. -17. -33. -48. -63. -73. -78. -81. -85. -85. -86. -86. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 34.4 56.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 600.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/17/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 4( 16) 0( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 78 78 76 73 63 47 32 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 79 77 74 64 48 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 74 71 61 45 30 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 67 57 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT