* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/16/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 56 61 70 77 80 77 71 66 61 59 51 45 39 34 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 56 61 70 77 80 77 71 66 61 59 51 45 39 34 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 50 53 61 69 74 72 66 61 57 53 46 40 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 8 10 16 17 20 14 25 20 23 14 26 23 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 4 4 2 6 5 5 0 -1 0 4 0 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 39 34 32 47 48 69 57 70 74 77 94 92 89 111 116 111 108 SST (C) 28.8 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 158 156 154 153 154 151 148 149 143 139 138 134 131 130 126 124 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 77 75 74 69 70 67 66 61 57 53 53 50 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 18 18 20 23 22 21 21 21 21 18 16 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 22 25 30 32 30 37 27 59 65 59 42 53 42 48 33 33 23 200 MB DIV 105 107 110 101 92 71 81 60 44 38 18 27 13 3 3 11 9 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -3 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 2 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 401 369 336 311 291 237 224 262 326 280 223 234 284 317 342 377 436 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.6 17.7 18.7 19.6 20.4 21.0 21.5 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.8 101.5 102.3 103.1 104.7 106.2 107.5 108.7 109.7 110.7 111.7 112.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 10 10 10 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 37 36 37 42 36 23 21 29 21 11 11 11 4 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. -12. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 7. 5. 6. 5. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 21. 30. 37. 40. 37. 31. 26. 21. 19. 11. 5. -1. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.9 100.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/16/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.73 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 50.2% 32.0% 21.1% 15.3% 30.4% 32.7% 30.2% Logistic: 17.9% 58.0% 41.6% 26.5% 10.5% 36.4% 24.9% 5.4% Bayesian: 14.5% 69.8% 66.4% 46.2% 1.9% 41.8% 20.4% 9.0% Consensus: 15.5% 59.3% 46.7% 31.3% 9.3% 36.2% 26.0% 14.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/16/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##