* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/16/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 96 97 96 88 75 55 36 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 95 96 97 96 88 75 55 36 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 94 93 93 91 81 67 52 42 36 33 32 33 33 32 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 3 4 8 11 20 31 34 36 26 22 26 36 45 42 26 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 0 -2 1 7 8 0 -3 -7 -3 0 0 -1 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 109 117 165 204 213 226 249 278 291 304 295 284 274 279 284 300 347 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.0 24.8 23.3 21.8 22.1 21.9 22.6 22.7 22.9 23.7 24.5 24.7 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 136 127 107 95 87 86 85 89 89 90 94 98 98 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 121 120 112 94 84 76 75 74 76 77 77 80 81 81 83 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -53.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -55.1 -55.6 -56.6 -57.1 -57.7 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 8 8 5 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 43 49 51 51 47 49 47 48 42 38 33 29 27 26 27 29 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 33 33 33 33 30 24 17 12 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -5 -1 30 24 26 9 -18 -63 -39 -36 -43 -41 -44 -43 -35 -44 200 MB DIV 85 101 73 77 73 52 13 -18 -5 -20 0 -8 -23 -18 -32 -34 -55 700-850 TADV 5 12 23 8 14 19 28 26 16 19 9 -9 -18 -24 -28 -45 -36 LAND (KM) 1480 1392 1298 1213 1089 921 999 1192 1384 1542 1700 1872 2021 1984 1921 1906 1891 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 33.0 34.2 35.6 36.9 39.1 40.3 40.7 40.6 40.1 39.4 38.4 37.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.7 56.9 56.1 54.5 52.9 48.6 44.4 40.8 38.1 36.3 34.7 33.2 32.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 16 19 19 19 15 12 8 7 8 7 6 5 3 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 11 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -16. -27. -37. -47. -54. -59. -64. -68. -71. -72. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -8. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -14. -24. -33. -43. -45. -45. -45. -44. -43. -43. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 1. -6. -20. -40. -59. -75. -88. -93. -95. -97. -97. -96. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 31.7 57.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 741.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 3.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/14 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 19( 33) 19( 46) 11( 52) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 95 96 97 96 88 75 55 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 95 96 95 87 74 54 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 91 83 70 50 31 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 84 76 63 43 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 68 55 35 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 95 86 80 77 72 59 39 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 95 96 87 81 77 64 44 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS