* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/16/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 45 45 46 44 44 43 42 42 44 48 50 52 50 52 V (KT) LAND 50 44 46 44 44 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 43 45 43 42 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 16 20 23 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 0 3 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 220 208 209 233 232 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 30.2 31.1 31.2 30.3 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 165 169 169 167 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -50.4 -50.6 -51.0 -51.1 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 61 59 60 54 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 15 14 9 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 18 -2 1 -4 4 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 26 45 26 7 5 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 1 0 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -23 -6 16 55 27 -49 -175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.6 29.2 29.7 30.2 31.2 32.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.3 113.5 113.4 113.2 112.5 111.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 16 24 34 39 43 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 18. 19. 22. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -4. -10. -16. -20. -22. -23. -25. -28. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -15. -19. -22. -22. -22. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -6. -6. -6. -8. -8. -6. -2. 0. 2. 0. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.0 113.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/16/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 17.4% 16.0% 11.2% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.9% 5.4% 3.8% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/16/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##