* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/16/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 49 49 51 49 46 46 43 41 43 45 47 46 43 43 V (KT) LAND 55 46 40 37 40 42 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 46 40 36 38 36 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 15 16 20 27 32 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -3 0 -1 -1 -4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 210 221 210 214 225 232 238 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 28.9 29.3 30.3 31.2 30.4 29.9 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 152 156 166 169 167 161 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.3 -51.0 -50.4 -50.7 -51.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 5 5 4 6 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 63 61 60 57 51 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 17 16 13 6 3 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 39 24 3 4 -7 14 15 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 33 36 52 34 -1 29 56 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -44 -37 -29 -10 16 27 -37 -108 -202 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.0 27.7 28.3 28.8 29.3 30.2 31.0 31.7 32.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 112.9 113.3 113.5 113.6 113.2 112.6 112.1 111.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 15 11 16 26 39 43 14 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -12. -18. -23. -25. -27. -29. -33. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -13. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -6. -9. -9. -12. -14. -12. -10. -8. -9. -12. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.0 112.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/16/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/16/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##