* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/16/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 95 96 97 97 91 81 65 49 34 25 20 20 18 17 15 V (KT) LAND 95 95 95 96 97 97 91 81 65 49 34 25 20 20 18 17 15 V (KT) LGEM 95 95 95 94 94 91 81 70 56 46 40 37 37 38 38 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 8 3 3 10 15 24 31 29 22 13 21 31 39 38 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 7 4 1 0 6 11 0 -2 -5 -5 -2 0 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 123 119 112 129 202 211 235 245 268 291 309 310 284 267 271 267 267 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.0 24.8 23.6 22.0 22.5 22.3 22.4 22.6 23.0 24.2 25.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 136 138 139 127 107 97 87 89 87 87 88 90 97 104 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 116 118 120 121 112 94 85 77 77 76 75 76 77 82 87 91 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -52.0 -51.9 -53.0 -53.7 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 -55.8 -55.9 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 8 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 37 41 43 48 52 49 50 50 49 48 43 41 34 33 31 29 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 32 33 32 33 33 32 31 25 20 14 9 7 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -25 -15 -11 0 7 8 -1 -17 -45 -38 4 -4 -4 -18 -23 -16 200 MB DIV 24 43 91 86 75 82 26 41 -8 -5 -35 -9 -10 -30 -23 -22 -15 700-850 TADV 3 4 7 16 13 10 9 29 16 18 11 4 -21 -23 -15 -8 -13 LAND (KM) 1523 1608 1505 1419 1313 1101 958 1038 1226 1437 1631 1811 1956 1988 1952 1945 1931 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.7 31.7 33.0 34.2 36.8 38.8 40.1 40.6 40.2 39.7 38.9 38.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.2 57.2 57.1 56.4 55.6 52.6 48.4 44.0 40.4 37.7 35.4 33.6 32.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 12 14 16 18 19 16 12 10 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 15 16 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -13. -23. -33. -41. -48. -54. -59. -64. -67. -69. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -9. -18. -28. -35. -38. -35. -35. -35. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -4. -14. -30. -46. -61. -70. -75. -75. -77. -78. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 29.6 57.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 828.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 4.9% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 5.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/14 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 17( 31) 20( 45) 20( 56) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 95 95 96 97 97 91 81 65 49 34 25 20 20 18 17 15 18HR AGO 95 94 94 95 96 96 90 80 64 48 33 24 19 19 17 16 DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 93 93 87 77 61 45 30 21 16 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 86 86 80 70 54 38 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 76 70 60 44 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 95 86 80 77 75 69 59 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 95 95 86 80 76 70 60 44 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS