* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/16/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 96 96 96 97 92 85 72 57 43 34 28 23 18 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 95 96 96 96 96 97 92 85 72 57 43 34 28 23 18 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 96 96 95 94 92 84 74 63 52 45 40 39 39 37 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 15 5 5 6 14 19 28 33 28 18 30 44 38 30 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 7 5 -1 3 8 9 0 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 121 120 112 98 91 200 237 235 258 275 297 295 281 273 276 287 288 SST (C) 28.8 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.4 27.3 25.4 24.4 22.2 23.0 22.0 22.5 22.4 22.0 22.5 24.1 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 140 138 140 144 130 112 103 89 92 86 88 87 85 88 98 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 121 120 121 125 115 98 91 78 79 75 76 75 74 76 83 86 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -52.3 -53.3 -54.1 -54.9 -55.0 -55.4 -56.3 -56.2 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 9 7 4 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 39 40 42 48 50 53 48 51 50 48 45 45 35 29 30 34 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 32 32 32 32 31 31 28 23 18 15 13 12 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -39 -25 -15 -17 11 2 6 5 -26 -15 7 11 0 -12 -41 -40 200 MB DIV 12 22 40 82 94 86 51 48 29 -10 -17 -12 -8 -24 -52 -32 -38 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 9 14 11 6 21 12 9 8 4 -14 -17 -27 -18 -16 LAND (KM) 1473 1541 1611 1521 1435 1252 1028 1000 1141 1355 1543 1710 1863 1920 1856 1800 1690 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.6 30.6 31.7 32.8 35.4 37.7 39.5 40.5 40.5 40.2 39.7 39.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.6 56.9 57.2 56.7 56.3 53.9 50.2 45.7 41.8 38.6 36.2 34.3 32.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 14 18 19 18 14 11 9 7 7 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 13 16 15 16 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -11. -21. -30. -38. -45. -51. -57. -62. -65. -68. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -6. -13. -22. -27. -30. -31. -32. -34. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. -3. -10. -23. -38. -52. -61. -67. -72. -77. -79. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 28.6 56.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.67 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 836.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.06 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.01 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.77 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 12.7% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 3.7% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.6% 0.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 5.8% 4.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/14 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 19( 33) 19( 46) 20( 56) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 96 96 96 96 97 92 85 72 57 43 34 28 23 18 16 DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 94 94 94 95 90 83 70 55 41 32 26 21 16 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 91 91 92 87 80 67 52 38 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 85 86 81 74 61 46 32 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 77 72 65 52 37 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 96 87 81 78 77 72 65 52 37 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 96 96 87 81 77 72 65 52 37 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS