* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/15/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 96 97 96 96 95 93 85 74 59 46 38 33 31 28 23 V (KT) LAND 90 94 96 97 96 96 95 93 85 74 59 46 38 33 31 28 23 V (KT) LGEM 90 96 98 98 96 92 90 83 74 64 53 46 42 40 40 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 16 15 14 3 6 10 22 31 37 34 25 25 30 44 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 3 0 8 8 5 -1 -3 -3 -3 1 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 115 118 130 113 118 338 191 220 233 255 272 289 299 297 268 258 252 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.2 28.0 28.3 27.4 25.5 24.4 22.8 23.0 22.3 22.4 22.4 21.6 22.3 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 148 139 137 142 132 112 103 92 92 87 88 88 85 88 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 137 129 120 118 123 116 99 90 81 79 76 76 76 74 77 78 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -52.9 -53.6 -54.4 -54.9 -54.7 -54.0 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 7 4 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 41 42 41 41 44 51 52 46 49 48 48 43 41 39 38 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 31 32 32 33 33 33 32 30 26 23 20 18 17 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -20 -25 -32 -27 -1 0 -6 3 -7 -7 14 49 81 83 57 26 200 MB DIV 56 61 5 12 56 88 57 89 37 61 14 -24 -20 -9 2 -21 2 700-850 TADV 6 4 3 0 2 17 7 12 22 8 5 0 -4 -6 -17 -35 -25 LAND (KM) 1455 1459 1473 1532 1594 1435 1278 1046 986 1125 1307 1481 1670 1860 1838 1703 1579 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 27.8 28.6 29.5 30.4 32.7 35.1 37.5 39.3 40.2 40.6 40.4 40.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.1 55.9 56.6 56.9 57.2 56.5 54.0 50.4 46.4 42.4 39.2 36.9 34.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 10 13 17 18 17 14 11 9 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 26 20 13 14 15 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -13. -20. -27. -33. -39. -44. -50. -54. -57. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -0. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -11. -17. -21. -24. -25. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. -5. -16. -31. -44. -52. -57. -59. -62. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 27.0 55.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.51 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 822.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.08 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.11 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 15.8% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.0% 12.8% 9.7% 4.3% 1.6% 2.2% 1.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 20.1% 22.4% 19.5% 5.6% 0.4% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 14.3% 17.0% 13.3% 3.3% 0.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 19( 29) 19( 42) 19( 53) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 94 96 97 96 96 95 93 85 74 59 46 38 33 31 28 23 18HR AGO 90 89 91 92 91 91 90 88 80 69 54 41 33 28 26 23 18 12HR AGO 90 87 86 87 86 86 85 83 75 64 49 36 28 23 21 18 DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 79 78 76 68 57 42 29 21 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 71 70 68 60 49 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 94 85 79 76 75 74 72 64 53 38 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 94 96 87 81 77 76 74 66 55 40 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS