* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/15/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 98 101 101 103 103 103 96 82 64 48 40 32 26 22 17 V (KT) LAND 90 95 98 101 101 103 103 103 96 82 64 48 40 32 26 22 17 V (KT) LGEM 90 97 101 103 102 98 97 92 80 66 53 45 40 37 36 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 12 10 9 10 3 11 18 36 43 44 40 34 39 46 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 2 0 1 2 3 10 6 -2 -5 -7 -5 -4 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 145 122 114 133 123 116 259 197 225 241 264 280 289 291 283 263 255 SST (C) 29.1 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.3 28.2 28.4 26.4 25.2 24.1 21.9 21.1 21.5 21.9 21.0 21.4 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 159 155 150 140 140 144 120 110 101 88 83 84 85 82 83 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 136 129 121 121 126 105 96 88 78 74 74 74 72 73 73 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -50.9 -51.3 -51.2 -52.7 -53.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 8 5 3 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 40 41 42 43 43 49 52 52 50 50 52 50 43 39 38 36 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 31 32 32 35 34 35 35 31 26 22 21 18 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -20 -17 -17 -33 -6 -14 5 3 -4 -19 -23 19 73 107 109 94 200 MB DIV 58 40 39 32 8 83 87 92 52 33 28 3 4 -14 -1 -17 0 700-850 TADV 5 6 4 4 5 3 22 7 24 20 11 11 0 1 -9 -24 -29 LAND (KM) 1508 1484 1470 1494 1523 1554 1375 1178 984 977 1131 1354 1561 1740 1858 1725 1570 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.2 27.9 28.7 29.4 31.3 33.7 36.1 38.3 40.1 41.1 41.2 41.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.0 54.9 55.8 56.3 56.9 56.9 55.3 52.7 49.3 45.1 41.3 38.0 35.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 11 15 17 18 17 14 11 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 26 20 14 18 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -11. -18. -24. -30. -36. -42. -48. -52. -55. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 6. 4. 1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 4. 5. 4. -2. -10. -16. -18. -22. -25. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 11. 13. 13. 13. 6. -8. -26. -42. -50. -58. -64. -68. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 26.5 54.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.67 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 819.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.08 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.14 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 17.4% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.7% 32.3% 25.5% 11.3% 6.3% 8.5% 3.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 15.8% 27.0% 17.5% 3.3% 0.2% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 14.7% 25.5% 18.2% 4.9% 2.2% 3.8% 1.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/14 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 21( 30) 23( 46) 25( 60) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 95 98 101 101 103 103 103 96 82 64 48 40 32 26 22 17 18HR AGO 90 89 92 95 95 97 97 97 90 76 58 42 34 26 20 16 DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 89 89 91 91 91 84 70 52 36 28 20 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 80 82 82 82 75 61 43 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 73 73 73 66 52 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 95 86 80 77 78 78 78 71 57 39 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 95 98 89 83 79 79 79 72 58 40 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS