* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/15/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 84 89 93 97 99 101 100 93 80 67 51 38 29 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 75 80 84 89 93 97 99 101 100 93 80 67 51 38 29 20 N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 79 84 89 92 94 92 90 85 76 65 53 44 38 35 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 9 10 15 11 6 4 8 14 22 31 40 43 39 43 57 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -3 1 0 3 -2 6 6 8 0 -5 -6 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 128 146 111 116 127 67 205 251 224 237 248 267 286 287 280 269 269 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.2 28.0 27.3 25.5 24.8 23.4 22.2 21.6 21.9 21.8 21.2 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 160 160 156 139 138 130 112 106 96 89 85 85 84 82 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 147 142 140 135 120 119 113 98 93 84 78 75 74 73 71 73 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -52.0 -53.0 -54.0 -54.4 -55.0 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 7 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 40 40 41 41 42 45 49 55 53 56 51 49 48 45 40 32 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 30 30 31 33 34 34 34 35 34 31 28 23 18 15 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -18 -20 -21 -16 -26 -20 -10 -14 -13 -22 -33 -5 35 58 56 32 200 MB DIV 53 60 49 24 23 65 52 70 91 57 18 33 -21 -5 -22 -22 -28 700-850 TADV 3 6 5 3 4 2 10 8 10 17 12 3 2 -4 -16 -30 -32 LAND (KM) 1577 1529 1492 1492 1499 1614 1493 1304 1091 985 1069 1273 1479 1658 1821 1843 1725 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.5 27.2 27.9 28.6 30.3 32.4 34.8 37.0 39.0 40.3 40.8 40.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.7 53.8 54.8 55.5 56.2 56.7 55.9 54.1 51.1 47.1 43.2 39.5 36.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 9 9 9 12 15 17 18 15 13 10 8 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 38 34 29 29 24 13 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -21. -26. -30. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 5. -0. -5. -12. -19. -22. -25. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 24. 26. 25. 18. 5. -8. -24. -37. -46. -55. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 25.8 52.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.61 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 704.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.57 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 18.1% 11.5% 8.2% 7.8% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.2% 26.9% 20.7% 9.9% 5.8% 8.4% 5.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 4.9% 12.1% 7.2% 0.6% 0.1% 2.9% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.6% 19.1% 13.1% 6.2% 4.6% 7.1% 2.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 14( 26) 20( 41) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 84 89 93 97 99 101 100 93 80 67 51 38 29 20 DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 78 83 87 91 93 95 94 87 74 61 45 32 23 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 76 80 84 86 88 87 80 67 54 38 25 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 69 73 75 77 76 69 56 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 80 84 75 69 65 67 69 68 61 48 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS