* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/14/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 86 91 95 100 104 106 106 100 91 76 62 46 34 26 20 V (KT) LAND 75 80 86 91 95 100 104 106 106 100 91 76 62 46 34 26 20 V (KT) LGEM 75 82 89 95 100 102 98 95 91 81 71 59 48 40 35 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 10 11 12 7 6 7 12 21 28 36 37 45 41 35 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 2 6 2 3 -8 -5 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 121 137 149 140 129 131 269 253 213 240 250 272 282 297 299 298 274 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 28.6 28.2 27.8 26.6 25.1 24.6 21.7 21.3 21.7 21.9 22.5 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 163 163 160 160 145 140 135 122 109 105 87 84 84 85 88 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 149 146 142 140 125 120 117 107 96 92 78 74 73 74 76 77 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -51.2 -51.4 -50.5 -50.9 -50.2 -50.7 -50.4 -51.7 -52.1 -53.0 -53.7 -54.3 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 5 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 40 41 41 41 42 42 50 54 61 60 60 61 52 47 45 39 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 29 29 32 33 34 35 36 35 34 31 28 23 19 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -6 -18 -22 -16 -28 -25 -30 -15 -18 -11 -20 -16 -6 20 53 36 200 MB DIV 64 50 30 46 64 16 67 49 92 71 74 26 18 -22 -2 -7 -11 700-850 TADV 14 6 10 3 4 3 6 7 5 18 22 14 8 0 7 -1 -22 LAND (KM) 1649 1581 1525 1500 1484 1539 1586 1409 1223 1008 995 1178 1391 1572 1734 1888 1973 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.8 26.5 27.2 27.8 29.3 31.2 33.4 35.7 38.1 39.9 41.0 41.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.5 52.6 53.8 54.6 55.5 56.5 56.4 55.2 52.8 49.2 45.1 40.7 37.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 9 10 14 17 19 18 15 10 8 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 39 34 29 29 16 14 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -5. -9. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 9. 8. 3. -3. -10. -16. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 20. 25. 29. 31. 31. 25. 16. 1. -13. -29. -41. -49. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 25.1 51.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.65 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 689.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.21 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.37 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.4% 27.8% 20.2% 10.3% 8.4% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.7% 37.8% 29.9% 9.5% 4.1% 10.9% 6.7% 2.1% Bayesian: 11.4% 11.0% 11.0% 0.9% 0.1% 4.4% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 14.8% 25.5% 20.4% 6.9% 4.2% 8.9% 2.6% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 17( 29) 22( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 86 91 95 100 104 106 106 100 91 76 62 46 34 26 20 18HR AGO 75 74 80 85 89 94 98 100 100 94 85 70 56 40 28 20 DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 76 80 85 89 91 91 85 76 61 47 31 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 69 74 78 80 80 74 65 50 36 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 80 86 77 71 67 71 73 73 67 58 43 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS