* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/14/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 75 81 89 95 101 102 101 96 88 73 57 42 30 22 V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 75 81 89 95 101 102 101 96 88 73 57 42 30 22 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 71 77 82 94 100 96 92 89 80 70 55 44 37 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 13 7 12 3 3 10 10 22 28 37 46 46 43 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 2 1 -2 3 3 11 5 0 -5 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 187 162 126 139 150 133 167 339 249 226 241 236 258 269 283 286 280 SST (C) 28.2 28.7 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 28.5 28.1 27.8 26.5 25.1 23.9 21.5 20.8 21.1 20.5 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 148 158 161 163 160 143 138 136 122 109 100 86 82 83 80 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 136 144 147 147 141 123 119 119 107 97 88 77 73 73 71 71 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -51.5 -51.7 -50.6 -51.0 -50.6 -51.0 -50.8 -51.6 -52.6 -54.0 -54.9 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.3 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 7 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 45 42 43 43 43 44 43 51 55 57 52 47 43 41 43 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 24 25 28 30 32 34 34 34 34 33 29 24 19 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -14 -3 -5 -12 -18 -24 1 0 -3 -15 -11 -21 -34 -20 4 8 200 MB DIV -14 17 72 42 24 51 16 59 30 105 62 68 31 6 -46 12 -5 700-850 TADV 11 15 12 6 6 4 4 1 11 4 3 12 -9 -19 -19 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1821 1733 1654 1585 1527 1477 1542 1568 1373 1145 928 954 1147 1372 1572 1746 1710 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.4 27.8 29.4 31.2 33.6 36.4 38.8 40.7 41.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.1 50.3 51.4 52.5 53.7 55.6 56.6 56.8 55.7 53.2 49.4 44.6 40.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 10 9 11 15 18 20 18 15 11 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 37 38 35 29 15 16 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. -0. -4. -8. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 2. -4. -9. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 4. -4. -11. -15. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 29. 35. 41. 42. 41. 36. 28. 13. -3. -18. -30. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 23.6 49.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/14 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.67 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 513.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.40 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 27.8% 18.2% 11.1% 8.3% 15.7% 19.8% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 31.4% 27.4% 12.1% 4.6% 9.8% 6.0% 4.9% Bayesian: 2.0% 1.8% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 6.5% 20.4% 16.0% 7.8% 4.3% 8.7% 8.7% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 8( 12) 11( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 1( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 70 75 81 89 95 101 102 101 96 88 73 57 42 30 22 18HR AGO 60 59 64 69 75 83 89 95 96 95 90 82 67 51 36 24 16 12HR AGO 60 57 56 61 67 75 81 87 88 87 82 74 59 43 28 16 DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 56 64 70 76 77 76 71 63 48 32 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT