* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/14/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 98 99 98 93 87 79 68 63 57 50 43 37 31 26 24 V (KT) LAND 90 96 98 99 98 93 87 79 68 63 57 50 43 37 31 26 24 V (KT) LGEM 90 97 100 99 97 89 80 71 61 53 47 42 37 33 30 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 5 7 7 2 4 7 10 7 15 20 24 27 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 5 4 0 2 1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 -4 0 -4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 40 94 141 167 150 213 132 95 172 230 215 216 209 220 213 238 249 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.6 27.4 26.6 25.6 25.2 25.1 24.5 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.3 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 157 151 138 129 118 114 112 105 102 102 102 102 101 102 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -50.4 -50.0 -50.5 -49.8 -50.6 -50.0 -50.6 -50.0 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.5 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 9 6 7 4 4 3 3 3 5 5 6 4 6 700-500 MB RH 76 79 80 81 80 77 72 70 64 60 51 45 39 34 28 25 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 27 28 28 27 27 26 22 21 18 15 12 9 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 43 62 73 72 72 59 63 46 31 1 7 1 3 16 18 28 38 200 MB DIV 90 100 53 44 46 41 56 -8 4 17 36 32 20 -2 0 -2 -4 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -4 -1 -3 6 2 -1 1 0 0 0 -8 -7 -14 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 252 242 252 287 247 106 122 113 157 136 131 138 144 135 107 67 40 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.2 19.0 19.9 20.8 22.3 23.6 24.6 25.6 26.6 27.3 27.8 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.9 107.6 108.4 109.2 110.8 112.2 113.4 114.5 115.5 116.2 116.4 116.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 11 10 8 7 7 6 3 2 2 1 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 27 21 23 38 32 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -6. -12. -18. -23. -27. -31. -34. -37. -41. -44. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -10. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 9. 8. 3. -3. -11. -22. -27. -33. -40. -47. -53. -59. -64. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.4 106.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/14/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.32 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 45.3% 31.5% 26.8% 23.2% 15.3% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 45.8% 46.5% 28.8% 19.2% 2.8% 9.4% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 41.0% 32.8% 28.0% 22.3% 4.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 44.0% 36.9% 27.9% 21.6% 7.4% 9.6% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/14/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##