* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/13/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 87 90 93 97 92 85 77 68 61 55 49 43 36 32 28 V (KT) LAND 75 81 87 90 93 97 92 85 77 68 61 55 49 43 36 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 84 86 86 86 84 80 73 64 56 50 43 38 33 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 9 4 5 5 6 2 2 3 6 9 8 14 19 22 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 8 3 5 -3 2 -1 -1 -1 0 4 0 2 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 28 43 73 135 139 215 169 159 159 179 217 216 203 204 210 218 222 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 27.8 27.5 26.2 25.6 24.8 24.3 23.7 23.5 23.8 24.1 24.4 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 153 153 142 139 125 118 109 103 96 93 96 99 102 106 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -50.2 -50.4 -50.0 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -50.6 -50.1 -50.4 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 76 77 79 80 79 78 74 70 67 64 59 54 48 45 43 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 29 28 27 29 28 27 27 24 22 20 18 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 45 65 75 77 73 59 63 63 65 40 34 35 44 46 47 37 31 200 MB DIV 91 106 76 57 66 19 54 48 -3 10 16 32 29 17 2 6 0 700-850 TADV -5 -10 -6 -3 -2 -3 6 1 0 1 0 5 2 0 -2 2 2 LAND (KM) 320 293 295 310 339 217 201 171 213 194 190 187 186 169 148 128 109 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.7 19.5 21.0 22.4 23.5 24.6 25.7 26.4 26.9 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.7 107.3 108.1 108.8 110.5 112.0 113.2 114.4 115.3 116.1 116.6 116.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 34 23 18 19 27 14 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -23. -26. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 15. 18. 22. 17. 10. 2. -7. -14. -20. -26. -32. -39. -43. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.6 106.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/13/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 10.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 7.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 8.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 7.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -8.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 52.4% 60.3% 47.1% 39.4% 26.9% 22.9% 16.5% 11.4% Logistic: 57.2% 72.9% 53.1% 42.3% 7.3% 27.4% 1.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 49.1% 71.7% 73.2% 67.9% 17.3% 33.7% 1.5% 0.0% Consensus: 52.9% 68.3% 57.8% 49.9% 17.1% 28.0% 6.5% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/13/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##