* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/13/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 81 87 92 101 100 95 85 77 67 58 51 44 35 27 19 V (KT) LAND 65 72 81 87 92 101 100 95 85 77 67 58 51 44 35 27 19 V (KT) LGEM 65 71 76 80 83 88 89 87 81 72 62 53 45 38 31 26 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 11 7 7 5 3 6 5 9 12 7 12 16 22 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 2 3 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 4 2 5 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 39 42 47 79 116 115 219 167 175 170 212 217 217 203 198 197 199 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.1 27.7 26.7 26.0 25.1 24.2 23.6 22.9 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 151 153 146 141 130 123 112 102 95 88 86 87 85 85 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -50.0 -50.4 -49.6 -50.4 -49.7 -50.1 -49.8 -50.1 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 8 9 6 7 5 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 77 79 80 78 72 68 63 62 57 52 50 46 39 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 31 29 29 31 31 32 29 28 26 24 22 19 16 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 34 57 77 84 69 80 63 72 54 49 27 28 25 36 25 28 23 200 MB DIV 62 99 100 83 65 35 6 72 10 23 18 30 38 26 28 11 11 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -7 -3 -4 -2 -3 2 1 3 1 0 3 -2 -3 -11 -7 LAND (KM) 329 312 306 311 323 290 189 209 203 236 223 215 231 267 285 295 295 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.3 18.0 18.7 20.3 21.8 23.0 24.2 25.3 26.1 26.6 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.4 106.9 107.6 108.2 109.8 111.4 112.9 114.2 115.4 116.2 116.7 117.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 11 10 9 8 6 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 41 28 21 17 19 21 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 64.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 10. 3. -2. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 22. 27. 36. 35. 30. 20. 12. 2. -7. -14. -21. -30. -38. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.4 105.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/13/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.50 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 8.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 7.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 10.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 8.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -8.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 5.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 42.4% 63.3% 48.9% 37.8% 28.2% 31.4% 17.7% 13.1% Logistic: 43.0% 71.0% 46.8% 36.2% 10.4% 30.3% 2.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 27.9% 69.7% 65.2% 55.7% 10.6% 38.0% 6.2% 0.1% Consensus: 37.8% 68.0% 53.6% 43.3% 16.4% 33.3% 8.7% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/13/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##