* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/13/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 54 58 67 76 84 91 95 93 91 84 69 52 39 28 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 54 58 67 76 84 91 95 93 91 84 69 52 39 28 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 50 52 56 66 79 88 91 90 86 78 67 54 43 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 12 12 8 10 5 7 8 13 16 20 23 33 41 45 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 -4 2 0 8 12 10 1 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 199 202 188 197 190 173 205 184 221 254 259 246 240 253 252 247 254 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.7 29.1 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.1 27.8 27.1 25.6 24.3 23.1 21.8 22.7 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 139 148 154 163 161 157 138 135 127 112 102 94 87 91 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 128 136 142 148 143 136 118 115 110 98 89 82 77 79 77 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -51.6 -52.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 6 4 3 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 50 48 48 48 46 44 43 44 46 51 63 56 49 41 36 35 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 21 22 26 29 31 33 35 35 36 35 28 21 15 10 850 MB ENV VOR 22 12 10 -4 -12 -5 -24 -16 -20 -29 -11 -9 7 -14 -20 -20 -20 200 MB DIV 56 33 8 -13 20 44 21 37 18 72 47 109 77 28 23 6 17 700-850 TADV 14 16 12 9 10 8 7 4 2 4 0 9 16 16 -12 -62 -41 LAND (KM) 1928 1918 1868 1783 1705 1586 1522 1552 1615 1441 1274 1034 932 1033 1225 1453 1681 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.1 22.8 23.5 24.2 25.8 27.3 29.0 30.9 32.9 35.1 37.5 39.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.4 47.4 48.4 49.4 50.5 52.6 54.5 55.9 56.4 55.9 54.1 51.2 47.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 12 11 10 9 11 15 16 16 15 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 27 32 36 35 41 30 23 13 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 14. 11. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. -6. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. 1. 4. 8. 10. 13. 16. 15. 16. 13. 3. -7. -14. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 13. 22. 31. 39. 46. 50. 48. 46. 39. 24. 7. -6. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.4 46.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.56 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 337.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.53 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 17.2% 10.9% 7.6% 6.9% 10.0% 14.4% 17.0% Logistic: 2.5% 13.9% 7.7% 1.7% 0.8% 3.6% 5.7% 6.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% Consensus: 3.1% 10.9% 6.3% 3.1% 2.5% 4.6% 6.9% 8.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 52 54 58 67 76 84 91 95 93 91 84 69 52 39 28 18HR AGO 45 44 48 50 54 63 72 80 87 91 89 87 80 65 48 35 24 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 47 56 65 73 80 84 82 80 73 58 41 28 17 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 48 57 65 72 76 74 72 65 50 33 20 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT