* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/12/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 48 52 57 64 76 85 91 97 95 95 91 86 78 66 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 48 52 57 64 76 85 91 97 95 95 91 86 78 66 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 47 48 52 59 70 81 87 89 89 86 83 74 66 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 15 13 13 14 6 6 9 7 2 12 5 14 15 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 3 2 0 1 0 -2 0 2 2 6 7 4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 209 213 220 213 209 209 138 194 168 217 221 267 246 274 240 241 243 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.8 27.9 28.5 29.0 29.7 29.2 28.9 28.4 27.9 27.8 27.3 25.8 25.6 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 131 134 136 144 152 164 155 149 142 135 134 129 113 111 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 122 125 125 132 138 147 135 128 121 115 114 110 97 95 93 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -50.4 -51.2 -50.3 -50.2 -49.7 -50.2 -49.8 -50.4 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 9 8 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 49 51 52 50 50 47 49 46 46 44 48 47 51 46 42 39 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 22 24 25 26 31 33 35 37 36 37 36 34 30 23 850 MB ENV VOR 37 43 40 32 30 13 9 2 0 -16 1 -14 16 3 17 22 12 200 MB DIV 39 64 56 28 34 10 46 49 55 37 91 -8 88 59 52 8 17 700-850 TADV 11 5 9 11 16 16 8 9 8 6 3 14 16 26 13 -9 3 LAND (KM) 1853 1852 1862 1874 1859 1751 1620 1519 1493 1517 1616 1574 1453 1335 1222 1201 1237 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.9 24.2 25.7 27.1 28.4 29.9 31.6 33.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.6 44.6 45.7 46.7 47.7 49.6 51.4 53.3 54.7 55.7 56.1 55.8 54.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 9 11 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 12 17 19 32 32 34 29 23 14 11 10 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 20. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 12. 15. 17. 20. 18. 17. 15. 11. 5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 24. 36. 45. 51. 57. 55. 55. 51. 46. 38. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.2 43.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.49 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 270.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.49 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 13.6% 8.9% 6.1% 5.2% 8.2% 11.0% 14.7% Logistic: 1.9% 8.5% 3.6% 1.5% 0.9% 4.0% 6.0% 11.5% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 2.5% 7.8% 4.2% 2.6% 2.0% 4.1% 5.8% 8.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 48 52 57 64 76 85 91 97 95 95 91 86 78 66 18HR AGO 40 39 42 44 48 53 60 72 81 87 93 91 91 87 82 74 62 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 42 47 54 66 75 81 87 85 85 81 76 68 56 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 39 46 58 67 73 79 77 77 73 68 60 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT