* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/12/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 52 58 63 71 81 89 94 97 96 94 91 84 72 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 52 58 63 71 81 89 94 97 96 94 91 84 72 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 45 47 49 52 57 66 78 88 95 95 89 86 82 74 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 16 16 11 10 9 6 0 5 5 7 9 11 11 22 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 3 4 3 0 3 4 1 0 9 2 9 7 7 -1 SHEAR DIR 238 219 221 231 227 193 218 184 44 182 152 169 239 242 254 244 254 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.7 29.1 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.4 27.9 27.8 27.0 27.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 127 128 130 136 147 154 162 156 151 141 135 134 124 128 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 119 119 121 125 135 139 144 136 131 120 114 114 105 108 96 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.2 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 9 9 8 7 3 700-500 MB RH 53 53 54 56 53 50 49 49 48 48 48 49 51 45 43 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 21 21 23 24 27 30 33 35 37 37 36 36 33 26 850 MB ENV VOR 41 39 45 41 34 30 11 17 9 14 14 10 15 15 20 35 33 200 MB DIV 23 30 57 56 46 12 10 57 31 76 48 63 33 70 39 11 14 700-850 TADV 8 9 2 6 11 11 10 9 8 7 3 8 7 12 13 3 -7 LAND (KM) 1851 1824 1808 1810 1819 1803 1698 1563 1496 1479 1545 1691 1620 1567 1434 1315 1214 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.3 21.5 22.8 24.2 25.6 26.9 28.5 30.2 31.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.2 43.3 44.4 45.4 46.4 48.3 50.1 52.0 53.5 54.7 55.4 55.3 54.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 11 11 10 9 8 9 8 8 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 9 14 11 12 19 33 33 34 30 24 15 10 12 3 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 22. 20. 18. 15. 11. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 23. 32. 41. 49. 54. 57. 56. 54. 51. 44. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.2 42.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.48 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.92 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 14.1% 9.2% 6.6% 5.6% 8.6% 10.5% 14.1% Logistic: 3.2% 8.3% 4.5% 2.7% 1.2% 5.8% 3.8% 7.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 3.5% 7.8% 4.7% 3.1% 2.3% 4.8% 4.8% 7.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 49 52 58 63 71 81 89 94 97 96 94 91 84 72 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 48 54 59 67 77 85 90 93 92 90 87 80 68 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 42 48 53 61 71 79 84 87 86 84 81 74 62 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 39 44 52 62 70 75 78 77 75 72 65 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT