* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/12/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 47 52 59 63 70 75 82 87 89 88 85 84 79 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 47 52 59 63 70 75 82 87 89 88 85 84 79 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 45 48 52 56 61 68 76 81 81 80 80 78 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 13 16 19 16 18 16 15 13 13 12 12 10 16 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -3 0 0 3 0 6 -1 4 0 9 3 6 5 8 SHEAR DIR 208 224 229 217 213 235 202 198 181 193 174 175 187 212 229 255 250 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.7 28.0 29.2 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.3 27.7 27.7 27.2 27.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 122 122 123 133 137 155 162 158 149 140 131 132 127 127 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 115 114 115 124 127 142 146 139 128 119 111 111 108 107 97 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 54 55 53 54 53 52 49 48 48 47 48 47 49 51 49 47 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 15 16 17 20 20 23 25 29 32 33 34 34 35 33 850 MB ENV VOR 57 51 47 46 44 42 33 15 19 8 11 6 2 7 2 26 38 200 MB DIV 49 49 32 35 48 38 30 6 37 7 47 51 55 55 51 59 16 700-850 TADV 2 4 7 7 3 5 7 13 5 10 7 4 4 6 10 19 18 LAND (KM) 1975 1948 1927 1898 1879 1900 1919 1818 1728 1685 1703 1763 1743 1623 1475 1341 1252 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.3 20.6 22.0 23.5 25.0 26.5 28.0 29.4 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.9 40.0 41.1 42.2 43.3 45.3 47.3 49.1 50.6 51.9 52.8 53.3 53.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 4 3 6 15 24 43 38 32 36 17 9 10 4 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 17. 20. 21. 20. 18. 18. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 17. 24. 28. 35. 40. 47. 52. 54. 53. 50. 49. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.0 38.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.55 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.92 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 14.8% 9.6% 6.7% 5.7% 8.2% 9.3% 10.7% Logistic: 5.9% 19.3% 10.3% 5.1% 2.7% 9.3% 7.6% 10.6% Bayesian: 3.0% 5.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 4.9% 13.1% 7.2% 4.0% 2.8% 5.9% 5.7% 7.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 45 47 52 59 63 70 75 82 87 89 88 85 84 79 18HR AGO 35 34 38 41 43 48 55 59 66 71 78 83 85 84 81 80 75 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 41 48 52 59 64 71 76 78 77 74 73 68 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 39 43 50 55 62 67 69 68 65 64 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT